Thursday, February 4, 2010

Decade In Review - Albuquerque 1999-2009

Sales Volume
According to statistics provided by the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors, in terms of sales volume, the real estate market in the Greater Albuquerque Area came full circle from 1999 to 2099. In 1999 7,007 homes were sold. In 2005 sales volume peaked at 14, 330. At the end of 2009, with 7,933 homes sold, sales were almost back at the 1999 level. The least number of sales for the decade occurred in 2000 when only 7,606 homes were sold.

Inventory
Not surprisingly, the year of lowest inventory of the decade was 2005 with and annual average of close to 2000 homes on the market and only 2,156 listed in the month of February. The year of highest inventory was 2008 with an annual average of approcimately 7000 homes on the market that year, the highest being 7,082 homes in the month of July. Later that year, in December, the inventory fell to 5,821.–Since then, the inventory has see-sawed between a high of 6,128 in July 2009 and a low of 5,156 (the lowest since April 2007) in December 2009.

Price Changes
Throughout the decade, with the exception of the year 2000, average prices in the Greater Albuquerque Area, have shown year over year positive changes up until 2008. The average price change for 2008 was -4.30% and in 2009, -7.72%. In 2009 all except four areas of the Greater Albuquerque Multiple Listing Service experienced year over year price decline. The four exceptions were Sandia Heights, Rio Rancho Mid North, Rio Rancho Mid West and Rio Rancho North, all of which showed appreciation ranging from 1.74% to 4.77%.

The steepest average price reduction (-7.72%) of any year since 1999 occurred in 2009. Areas of severest negative price changes were Pajarito with a change of -38.71%, Rio Rancho Southwest with a change of -28.o7%, and the Far North Valley with -26.89%. Highest area year over year increase (23.331%) occurred in 2006 when the average price of a home reached $227,883. In 1999, the average price of a home in the Greater Albuquerque Area was $150,264. Despite the price reductions of the past two years, the current average price of $214,662 is higher than all pre-2006 prices. The average price of Greater Albuquerque homes in 2005 was $204,502.

Conclusion
Looking back over the last decade, the big picture supports that Albuquerque real estate experienced a time of flux and readjustment. Prices of homes fell but are today higher than they were prior to 2006. The inventory rose and peaked and is almost back at 2001 levels, a real estate period considered normal. Although 2009 sales fell short of the 2008 volume, the surge in completed and pending sales activities during the last three months of 2009 suggest the beginning of the building of momentum towards complete market readjustment. With the promise of new jobs in the healthcare, film, and solar related industries aligning with actual historically low interest rates and tax incentives for home buyers, Albuquerque real estate shows promise for the new decade.

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